Let's go

     There are 26 days left until the 2010 midterm election. As per usual, Ohio is a hotly contested political battle ground. A senate seat, a governorship, a host of state offices and 18 congressional districts are up for grabs. This election cycle is critical for Ohio as the winners of the state offices (namely, Secretary of State) will help oversee the redrawing of Ohio's congressional districts. We're losing two seats, someone's getting gerrymandered. On top of this, President Obama could lose all the swing states he carried in 2008 - except Ohio - and still win re-election. This election sets the political table for that fight. Both sides know this, both sides know this election cycle is key.

 So....?

     So. Technology is changing the way campaigning is conducted. Obama shattered all kinds of fund raising records (most donations, total dollars raised) through online contributions. His primary campaign, like the tea party movement, organized initially online. So here's the question, "Do these strategies have an impact on state level politics?"

     I think yes. Here's how I'm going to test this hypothesis. I'm going to keep simple Excel spreadsheets chronicling the races for Governor, Senate, Secretary of State, Auditor, Treasurer and all 18 congressional races. I'm keeping track of each candidates' facebook fans, YouTube channel subscribers, twitter followers, twitter lists the candidate appears on. Simultaneously, I will attempt to provide daily, in-depth analysis of how each candidate uses their social media resources. I'll address this analysis in terms of the race in general, national trends, and candidate fund raising. I'll try to do one race a day from here til election night. The goal is to be entirely NON-PARTISAN, accurate, and in-depth.

     There are obvious methodological issues here. Social media DOES NOT provide an accurate sample of the voting populace. People can follow or like a myriad of candidates, without rhyme or reason. People outside of the constituencies can support a candidate without issue. Social media analysis does not factor in grass-roots action or other local variables. Similarly, social media also provides no means to gauge financial resources or other media exposure. Finally, some enthusiastic supporters of nearly all these candidates have taken it upon themselves to start other support groups, post videos or tweet. I cannot even begin to amass this data.

      Despite the drawbacks, these methods work. Using analysis of facebook exclusively, over the month of August I was able to successfully predict Tea-Party candidate Carl Paladino's surprise GOP Primary victory in the N.Y. Governor's race.

Please,
     Please,
        Please, tell anyone you know remotely interested in Ohio Politics or Social Media about this blog.
    Please.

If I may leave you with the words of a time-honored philosopher,
             "Always in motion the future is." -Jedi Master Yoda


Aight, Let's go.....

-Alejandro